| Lee and Collier County Statistical Foreclosure Trends |
| 30 Percent of the homes in Lee County Florida Are Vacant? Balderdash Sayeth I! |
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Vacant Housing Units. A housing unit is vacant if no one is living in it at the time of the interview, unless
its occupants are only temporarily absent. In addition, a vacant unit may be one which is entirely occupied by persons who have a usual residence elsewhere.
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| foreclosure notices on 30,660 homes in Cape Coral-Fort Myers in 2010, balderdash sayeth I! |
| There is 13% more money in the Bank in 2010 than 2005 in the Cape Coral/Fort Myers MSA |
| Things that make you go hmm, The Banking Industry and the effect of Federal Debt |
| Is Fannie Mae holding REO's off the market? |
| Evaluating Real Estate Markets |
| Did the BP Oil Spill affect Florida Real Estate sales? |
| The 5 Simple Truths every Real Estate Investor should know |
| Cash Flow in Boom/Bust Cycles |
The key to investing
It's all about the exit
I bought and sold a lot of houses till, I learned what I was doing
I broke all the "rules" because I did not know the "rules"
one of the basic rules is , have an exit before you enter, and have another exit if that does not work
IE, tie up a property and try an wholesale it, if it does not close then you rehab and sell to an end user
if you only have one exit in your deal, you are making a mistake
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the key to this game is following the rules
you make your money on the buy
sell or rent high after the good buy
spend less money than you make
turn paper wealth into cash every chance you get
For the record, busts do not follow booms, booms follow busts
remember, all wealth is not forever
its there for those who choose to follow the rules
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emotion has more to do with Real Estate than supply and demand ever will
think emotion has more to do with Real Estate than supply and demand ever will
In 2005 we were buying houses when we should not have been
In 2007 we should be buying houses and we are not why is that....Socioeconomics
I quote
Socioeconomics typically analyze both the social impacts of economic activity and economic impacts of social activity. In many cases, however, socioeconomists focus on the social impact of some sort of economic change. Such changes might include a closing factory, market manipulation, the signing of international trade treaties, new natural gas regulation, etc. Such social effects can be wide-ranging in size, anywhere from local effects on a small community to changes to an entire society.
many times we fool ourselves with numbers, Gaussian "bell curve type" number models were used to predict, the market to keep rolling in 2005
Guess what it did not happen
why...
a change ion the social mood
in 2005 risk was the catch word, now its fear
pop culture has a lot to do with this, they also feed these trends, look at the movies and music
Dark and scary right now, because....that’s what we want
we need to stop blaming the "flippers" agents, mortgage broker, builders, its more the times that caught up, than misdeeds
There were plenty of misdeeds to go around though
More quotes of wisdom
Whether market timing is ever a viable investment strategy is controversial. Some may consider market timing to be a form of gambling based on pure chance because they do not believe in the possibility of predicting future financial prices. The efficient market theory suggests that financial prices often exhibit random walk behavior and thus can not be predicted with consistency. Some consider market timing to be sensible in certain situations, such as an apparent bubble. However, because the economy is a complex system that contains many factors, even at times of significant market optimism or pessimism, it often remains difficult, if not impossible, to pre-determine the local maximum or minimum of future prices with any precision; a so-called bubble can last for many years before prices collapse. Likewise, a crash can persist for extended periods; stocks that appear to be "cheap" at a glance can often become much cheaper afterwards before either rebounding at some time in the future or heading toward bankruptcy.
some more to ponder
In finance, the efficient market hypothesis (EMH)Eugene Fama at the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business developed EMH as an academic concept of study through his published Ph.D. thesis in the early 1960s at the same school. asserts that financial markets are "informationally efficient", or that prices on traded assets, e.g., stocks, bonds, or property, already reflect all known information and therefore are unbiased in the sense that they reflect the collective beliefs of all investors about future prospects. Professor The efficient market hypothesis states that it is not possible to consistently outperform the market by using any information that the market already knows, except through luck. Information or news in the EMH is defined as anything that may affect prices that is unknowable in the present and thus appears randomly in the future.
funny part about most of these quotes, these schools of thought. They come from outside the business world
Those than can do, those that can’t teach
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Heraclitus and Real Estate cycles
I was doing some reading.
I came upon a quote from Heraclitus. The quote really sumed up the market right now
"out of life comes death and out of death life ,out of the young the old, and out of the old the young,out of sleep waking and out of waking sleep, the stream of creation and dissolution never stops."
I can not think of a better mind set for the market right now. The market is in a state of flux. The other side of the cycle ( the seller's boom) is behind us and we are feeling the effects. This side of the cycle ( the buyers boom) is starting to happen. This is marked by the downward price trends.
Dont sweat the small stuff. Its all part of an age old cycle. They even knew about it 500 BC!
Heraclitus of Ephesus (Ancient Greek: ?ρ?κλειτος ? ?φ?σιος — H?rákleitos ho Ephésios, English Heraclitus the Ephesian) (ca. 535–475 BC) was a pre-Socratic Ionian philosopher, a native of Ephesus on the coast of Asia Minor.
Carpe Diem, Illegitimae Non Carborundum!
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Déjà vu
It seems like in history we just keep repeating the same things over and over again
http://www.stock-market-crash.net/florida.htm
At this point, almost anybody could invest in Florida, even without much money. Credit was plentiful and soon everybody in Florida was either a real estate investor or a real estate agent. In 1922, the Miami Herald became the heaviest newspaper in the world as a result of its humongous real estate advertisements. People in the North heard about the real estate prices “doubling and tripling”, causing a snowball effect. Capital was rapidly pumped into the real estate market. Whole golf communities were developed, such as Temple Terrace. Resorts and retirement communities were developed almost overnight. Mansions were sprawling in every area, as were swimming pools. As always, waterfront property was the most desirable. Florida was seen as a veritable Utopia.
Real estate prices quadrupled in less than one year. An elderly man invested $1,700 in property and by 1925 the property was worth over $300,000! It seemed you could do no wrong by just buying any property in Florida and become a millionaire. By 1925, real estate prices had become so exorbitant that buying land wasn’t affordable any longer. New investors failed to arrive and old investors started to sell. Panic arrived, as it always does, and the real estate market crashed. Prices kept moving downwards as heavily indebted investors tried to sell to avoid bankruptcy. In most cases, no buyers arrived, and the investors were bankrupt from the enormous mortgages.
To make matters even worse, a highly destructive hurricane ravaged South Florida in September 1926. The 125 mile an hour winds eventually turned Palm Beach County into swamp lands. After the storm, a huge tidal wave crashed upon the towns of Belle Glade and Moore Haven. Due to these horrible turn of events, over 13,000 homes were destroyed and 415 people died. Additionally, the arrival of the Mediterranean fruit fly obliterated the large citrus industry. It took years for Florida to fully recover, even through the highly prosperous time from 1925 to 1929. Florida was barely affected in the stock market crash of 1929 and the Great Depression, because of its poor financial state from the start.
Déjà vu (French: "already seen"; IPA: English /deɪʦ#39;ɦ#39;ː vuː/ (help·info), French /deʦ#39;a vy/ (help·info); also called paramnesia, from Greek παρα para, "parallel" + μνήμη mnĢmĢ, "memory") is the experience of feeling sure that one has witnessed or experienced a new situation previously (an individual feels as though an event has already happened or has repeated itself). The term was coined by a French psychic researcher, Émile Boirac (1851–1917) in his book L'Avenir des sciences psychiques (The Future of Psychic Sciences), which expanded upon an essay he wrote while an undergraduate. The experience of déjà vu is usually accompanied by a compelling sense of familiarity, and also a sense of "eeriness", "strangeness", or "weirdness". The "previous" experience is most frequently attributed to a dream, although in some cases there is a firm sense that the experience "genuinely happened" in the past. Déjà vu has been described as "remembering the future."
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/208166/
Hyman Minsky was an American economist who died in 1996. His main contribution to economics was a model of asset bubbles driven by credit cycles. In his view periods of economic and financial stability lead to a lowering of investors’ risk aversion and a process of releveraging. Investors start to borrow excessively and push up asset prices excessively high. In this process of releveraging there are three types of investors/borrowers. First, sound or “hedge borrowers” who can meet both interest and principal payments out of their own cash flows. Second, “speculative borrowers” who can only service interest payments out of their cash flows. These speculative borrowers need liquid capital markets that allow them to refinance and roll over their debts as they would not otherwise be able to service the principal of their debts. Finally, there are “Ponzi borrowers” cannot service neither interest or principal payments. They are called “Ponzi borrowers” as they need persistently increasing prices of the assets they invested in to keep on refinancing their debt obligations
"Some people spend an entire lifetime wondering if they made a difference in the world. But, the Marines don't have that problem." -- Ronald Reagan
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